We are entering an age of abundance. New technologies are being created that will reduce the cost of all manufactured goods.
However these technologies come with some draw backs also. I thought about what will happen when 3D printing of houses becomes mainstream. With caterpillar funding contour crafting this will go mainstream quickly. Tell me if these predictions seem likely.
http://viterbi.usc.edu/news/news/2008/caterpillar-inc-funds.htm
#3dprinting #make @MAKE1
If you look at the composition of the price of a house you will find that the land value would represent about 1 third the building cost itself another third and the finishing costs another third. This is a very rough approximation but as you can see if you halve the building cost it doesn’t have a significant affect on the total cost of the house as your blog wood indicate.
Who installs pipes, wiring, windows, heating, buys the land,…?
Factory build houses that can be erected in a weekend after the foundation and cellar are dry have already done that part you intend for 3d printing concrete.
CNC machined wood is already there… And lighter to transport, erect and store.
@Marcus_Wolschon The technology is being developed for structure, wiring, plumbing, windows. Tiles, rugs, plaster, and paint will come later. That is why I mentioned the gradual decrease in home prices. The technology will take time to mature and optimize.
@David_Fuchs I believe that automation will become more prevalent in the building industry for the simple reason that it is 1 of the biggest killers of employees if not the major killer at the moment it use to be farming but that has become more and more mechanised with a corresponding decrease in deaths.
Weather this mechanisation is in the form of some style of 3d printer remains to be seen although it is a distinct possibility.
@Tony_Hine_Nifty_Acce I am finishing up the numbers on a 3D printed 3,500 sq foot cement house. Here is what I have so far.
Concrete cost between $75 and $90 per Cubic yard depending on grade.
With the contour crafting machine and a 1/2 (0.5) inch wall thickness (3 walls total). Two straight walls and 45 degree cross member ends up being roughly (1 + 1 + 1.414) * 0.5 = 1.707 cubic inches of cement, per square inch of vertical wall space.
It the wall thickness is greater than I estimate just change the 0.5 above (added) and below to what ever it actually is.
editted - added >>->
What that means is the walls for a 20 ft x 20 ft x 10 ft (400 sq ft) room costs under $400 USD ( ~4 yrd^3 of concrete ) to print out.
400 sq feet is the floor space for a standard 2 car garage.
@Tony_Hine_Nifty_Acce FYI - The biggest killer industries are fishing, then logging. construction comes in 3rd or 4th if memory serves.
My physical house is not worth ANYWHERE near the value that it is assessed at. The way assessment works is just nonsense and is a system of cronyism designed to increase revenue.
@Billy You can challenge the assessment. I know a lot of people who have since the housing market collapse.
I agree it is not even remotely going to offset the increase in price and demand for land rises.
That’s not my point. My house is 140 years old. Its depreciated value is worth a small fraction of the land value, but that’s not the case at all. My point is that the physical price of a house is not a reflection of its value AT ALL. Not even close unless it was just built.
Housing is held artificially high by taxation. Government needs expensive housing. That’s going to be a huge problem in the future when every other human need besides shelter is met for extremely low cost. We can get away with 80% or whatever unemployment when everything is near zero cost, but I don’t know how unemployed people will be able to afford shelter.
@Ben_Norris I agree that land prices will be an issue. We however are entering an age where cars will become automated and drive faster, an age where most things will be handled by robots, where telecommuting will become even more common place, Imagine google hangouts being used by companies dropping by the desk is actually a click away. I really have to write that one up today.
@Billy With near zero costs come the need to work less. Governments will have to adapt to a world where deflation as opposed to inflation is the standard.
Truth be told I see this deflationary pressure bankrupting pretty much every nation on earth that has any debt what so ever.
That is actually going to be another blog post I am going to do so I am going to stop now.
@David_Fuchs the price of the concrete you have quoted is concrete for foundations. This is a cheap concrete because it contains very little cement its main constituents being a combination of aggregates normally to a maximum size of 3 quarters of an inch. The 3/4" size would make it unsuitable for constructing wall thicknesses of half an inch. To construct walls of this thickness (half an inch) you would need a mortar mix which contains considerably more cement and would be considerably more expensive possibly 2 or 3 times the price.
@Tony_Hine_Nifty_Acce I high end number I was quoting was 1 part Portland cement 3 1/2 parts sand and 1 1/2 parts various fiber fillers. I am not exactly sure of what the perfect mix is.
@Tony_Hine_Nifty_Acce Sand is cheap and the filler I am still pricing out. As I said the article/blog post I am writing is a work in progress at this point.
@Billy don’t be ridiculous, housing does not depreciate. It never has, and that is for a very fundamental reason: you never have to tear it down and start again from scratch, not even when needs change significantly. All you have to do is maintain it. If you fail to do maintenance and the house starts falling down, then is when the value of the building itself starts to go to 0.
Take two equal buildings (same design, quality of materials, etc). One is brand new. One is 40 years old and is immaculate. Which one has more value apples to apples?